Bet Hedging Calculator
Find the exact stake to place on the opposing outcome so you lock in a guaranteed profit or cap your potential loss. Ideal for matched bettors, exchange traders, and anyone wanting to de-risk a winning position.
Last updated: September 2026
Formula below · 1 source (Wikipedia) · Updated Sep 2026
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About this calculator
Hedging a bet means placing a second wager on the opposite outcome so that you profit, or at least lose less, whichever way the event goes. To lock in the same result either way, the hedge must return exactly what the original bet returns: originalStake × originalOdds. If the hedge is placed on an exchange that charges commission on net winnings, its effective odds are 1 + (hedgeOdds − 1) × (1 − commission / 100), so the hedge stake is: hedge stake = (originalStake × originalOdds) / (1 + (hedgeOdds − 1) × (1 − commission / 100)). All odds are decimal; enter 0% commission for a bookmaker hedge. Your locked-in result on either outcome is originalStake × originalOdds − originalStake − hedge stake. It is positive only when the odds have moved in your favour (1/originalOdds + 1/effective hedge odds below 1); otherwise the hedge caps your loss.
How to use
Example: You backed a team at decimal odds of 3.00 with a $50 stake. The opposite outcome is now available at 1.60 on an exchange with 2% commission. Step 1: Enter originalStake = 50, originalOdds = 3.00, hedgeOdds = 1.60, commission = 2%. Step 2: effective hedge odds = 1 + 0.60 × 0.98 = 1.588. Step 3: hedge stake = (50 × 3.00) / 1.588 = $94.46. Step 4: If your original bet wins you collect $150 and lose the $94.46 hedge: $150 − $50 − $94.46 = +$5.54. If the hedge wins it pays $94.46 + $94.46 × 0.60 × 0.98 = $150.00, and after both stakes you are again +$5.54. With the default inputs ($100 at 5.00, hedge at 1.25, 2% commission) the hedge stake is $401.61 and both outcomes lose about $1.61, so that hedge only caps the risk.
Frequently asked questions
Why would a bettor want to hedge a bet before the event ends?
Bettors hedge to convert an uncertain profit into a guaranteed one, particularly when odds have moved significantly in their favour since the original bet was placed. For instance, if you backed a team at long odds early in a tournament and they reach the final, hedging locks in winnings without waiting for a potentially uncertain result. Hedging also makes sense when personal circumstances change and you need certainty rather than risk. It is a common strategy in matched betting and arbitrage to extract a risk-free return from bookmaker bonuses.
How does exchange commission affect the hedge bet calculation?
Betting exchanges charge a percentage commission on net winnings, typically between 2% and 5%. That lowers the effective odds of the hedge to 1 + (hedgeOdds − 1) × (1 − commission), so you need a slightly larger hedge stake to return the same amount, and the guaranteed profit is slightly smaller. Ignoring commission is a common mistake that leads bettors to under-hedge and end up with a small loss on one outcome. Always enter the actual commission rate your exchange charges to get an accurate result.
What is the difference between hedging and arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage involves simultaneously placing bets on all outcomes across different bookmakers when the combined implied probabilities sum to less than 100%, guaranteeing profit from the outset. Hedging, by contrast, is a reactive strategy — you already have an open bet and place a second bet later to reduce or eliminate risk after odds have moved. Both strategies aim for risk-free returns, but arbitrage requires finding the opportunity upfront while hedging exploits favourable line movement after the fact. Exchange commissions and maximum stake limits affect the profitability of both approaches.