Bet Hedging Calculator
Find the exact stake to place on the opposing outcome so you lock in a guaranteed profit or cap your potential loss. Ideal for matched bettors, exchange traders, and anyone wanting to de-risk a winning position.
About this calculator
Hedging a bet means placing a second wager on the opposite side of your original bet so that you profit — or at least break even — regardless of the outcome. The optimal hedge stake is calculated as: hedge stake = (originalStake × originalOdds) / (hedgeOdds × (1 + commission / 100)) − originalStake. Here, originalOdds and hedgeOdds are expressed in decimal format. The commission term accounts for the percentage fee charged by betting exchanges such as Betfair. Once the hedge stake is placed, your guaranteed profit equals the return on your original bet minus both stakes. The formula ensures that the net payout is equalised across both outcomes, eliminating variance while retaining a profit margin created by favourable line movement or promotional offers.
How to use
Example: You backed a team at decimal odds of 3.00 with a $50 stake. Before the match, the lay odds on a betting exchange are 2.60 with 2% commission. Step 1: Enter originalStake = 50, originalOdds = 3.00, hedgeOdds = 2.60, commission = 2%. Step 2: The calculator computes: hedge stake = (50 × 3.00) / (2.60 × 1.02) − 50 = 150 / 2.652 − 50 = 56.56 − 50 = $6.56. Step 3: If your original bet wins, profit = $100 minus the $6.56 hedge loss. If the hedge wins, you cover the original stake. Review the locked-in profit displayed before confirming your hedge.
Frequently asked questions
Why would a bettor want to hedge a bet before the event ends?
Bettors hedge to convert an uncertain profit into a guaranteed one, particularly when odds have moved significantly in their favour since the original bet was placed. For instance, if you backed a team at long odds early in a tournament and they reach the final, hedging locks in winnings without waiting for a potentially uncertain result. Hedging also makes sense when personal circumstances change and you need certainty rather than risk. It is a common strategy in matched betting and arbitrage to extract a risk-free return from bookmaker bonuses.
How does exchange commission affect the hedge bet calculation?
Betting exchanges charge a percentage commission on net winnings, typically between 2% and 5%, which increases the effective odds you need to lay. The formula divides by (hedgeOdds × (1 + commission / 100)), reducing the hedge stake required but also slightly reducing guaranteed profit. Ignoring commission is a common mistake that leads bettors to under-hedge and end up with a small loss on one outcome. Always enter the actual commission rate your exchange charges to get an accurate result.
What is the difference between hedging and arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage involves simultaneously placing bets on all outcomes across different bookmakers when the combined implied probabilities sum to less than 100%, guaranteeing profit from the outset. Hedging, by contrast, is a reactive strategy — you already have an open bet and place a second bet later to reduce or eliminate risk after odds have moved. Both strategies aim for risk-free returns, but arbitrage requires finding the opportunity upfront while hedging exploits favourable line movement after the fact. Exchange commissions and maximum stake limits affect the profitability of both approaches.