Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Evaluate whether a fantasy football trade is fair by weighing projected points, positional scarcity, injury risk, and schedule difficulty. Use it before accepting or proposing any trade to avoid giving up too much value.
About this calculator
This calculator measures trade surplus or deficit as a percentage of your player's value. The formula is: tradeValue = ((player2Value × positionScarcity × injuryRisk × strengthOfSchedule) − (player1Value × 0.9)) / player1Value × 100. Your player's value is discounted by 10% (multiplied by 0.9) to reflect the inherent uncertainty in trading away a known quantity. The opponent's player value is scaled up or down by three multipliers: positional scarcity (how rare their position is on the waiver wire), injury risk (a factor below 1.0 for injury-prone players), and schedule difficulty (favorable schedules score above 1.0). A positive result means you are winning the trade; a negative result means you are giving up more value than you receive.
How to use
Suppose you are trading away a running back who has scored 180 pts (player1Value = 180) for a wide receiver who has scored 160 pts (player2Value = 160). The WR position has a scarcity multiplier of 1.1, the incoming player's injury risk factor is 0.95, and his remaining schedule rates at 1.05. Calculation: ((160 × 1.1 × 0.95 × 1.05) − (180 × 0.9)) / 180 × 100 = ((175.56) − (162)) / 180 × 100 = 13.56 / 180 × 100 ≈ 7.5%. A result of +7.5% means you are gaining roughly 7.5% more value than you are giving up — accept the trade.
Frequently asked questions
How does positional scarcity affect a fantasy football trade's value?
Positional scarcity reflects how difficult it is to replace a player at their position on the waiver wire or in future drafts. A scarcity multiplier above 1.0 means the incoming player's position is hard to find, making their projected points worth more in practice. Running backs typically carry higher scarcity multipliers than quarterbacks in most league formats. Accounting for scarcity prevents you from straight-up comparing raw point totals when the positions are not equally replaceable.
What injury risk factor should I assign to players when analyzing a trade?
Injury risk factors typically range from 0.7 (very high injury history or current questionable status) to 1.0 (fully healthy with no significant injury concerns). A player listed as week-to-week might receive a factor of 0.85, while a player returning from a torn ACL early in the season might warrant 0.75. You should consult injury reports, beat reporters, and sites like Pro Football Reference to inform your assessment. The lower the factor, the more the calculator discounts the incoming player's projected points.
Why is my player's value multiplied by 0.9 instead of used at face value?
The 0.9 discount on your player's value captures the well-known 'seller's discount' in fantasy trades — the player you are giving away is a known commodity whose future performance carries uncertainty for the receiving team. It also reflects the psychological advantage of dealing from a position of surplus; you should only trade if you receive meaningfully more than face value in return. This built-in discount encourages you to demand a slight premium before accepting any offer, which mirrors how experienced fantasy managers actually negotiate.