Poker Fold Equity Calculator
Calculates the expected value of a bluff by combining your opponent's fold frequency, your pot equity when called, and bet size. Use it to decide whether a semi-bluff or pure bluff is profitable.
Last updated: September 2026
Formula below · 1 source (Wikipedia) · Updated Sep 2026
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About this calculator
Fold equity is the portion of a bet's value that comes from forcing your opponent to fold. The expected value (EV) of a bet combines two cases. When your opponent folds, you win the current pot. When they call, the pot grows to the current pot plus your bet plus their matching call, and you win it with your equity when called, having put in your bet. So EV = (foldFrequency × potSize) + ((1 − foldFrequency) × (equityWhenCalled × (potSize + 2 × bluffSize) − bluffSize)), measured against checking and giving up. A positive result means the bet makes money on average. Position is not a separate input: its effect belongs in your equity-when-called estimate (equity you can realise) and in how often your opponent folds. The break-even fold frequency for a pure bluff with no equity is bluffSize / (potSize + bluffSize). Edge cases: the model assumes your opponent either folds or calls; raises are not modelled, and equity when called should be your realised equity over the rest of the hand.
How to use
Pot = $100, bluff size = $60, opponent folds 55% of the time, your equity when called = 30%. Step 1, fold case: 0.55 × $100 = $55. Step 2, call case: the final pot is $100 + $60 + $60 = $220, so 0.45 × (0.30 × $220 − $60) = 0.45 × ($66 − $60) = $2.70. Step 3, total EV: $55 + $2.70 = $57.70. The bet is clearly profitable. With the default inputs ($200 pot, $150 bet, 60% folds, 25% equity) the EV is 0.6 × $200 + 0.4 × (0.25 × $500 − $150) = $120 − $10 = $110.
Frequently asked questions
What is fold equity in poker and why does it matter?
Fold equity is the added value a bet gains when it causes your opponent to fold hands that would otherwise beat you. Even a weak hand gains value if the opponent folds often enough. Understanding fold equity prevents you from only betting for value; it quantifies when aggression is mathematically justified. Without fold equity, bluffing with no showdown value is simply burning money.
How do I calculate the breakeven fold frequency for a bluff?
The breakeven fold frequency is: foldFrequency_BE = bluffSize / (potSize + bluffSize). For a $60 bet into a $100 pot, that is $60 / $160 = 37.5%. If your opponent folds more than 37.5% of the time, the bluff is immediately profitable even with zero equity when called. This ignores your equity when called, so accounting for that equity lowers the true breakeven point further.
When should I increase my bluff size to gain more fold equity?
Larger bets apply more pressure and increase fold frequency, but they also risk more when called. Increase your bluff size when the board texture heavily favours your perceived range, when your opponent is a fit-or-fold player, or when you have meaningful equity as a backup. On boards where your opponent has many strong hands they cannot fold, a smaller sizing preserves chips while still applying some pressure.