Poker Push/Fold Calculator
Estimates the profitability of shoving all-in with a short stack in tournament poker, accounting for stack depth, players behind, expected call range, and bubble pressure. Ideal for late-stage MTT decisions.
About this calculator
In short-stack tournament play, the push/fold decision replaces nuanced post-flop play. The calculator estimates shove profitability using: result = (stackSize / (stackSize + opponents × 1.5)) × (1 − 0.85^opponents) × (callRange / 100) × bubbleFactor. The first term represents your stack's share of the chips in play if called. The second term scales for how many independent callers could be behind you — more players exponentially increase call likelihood. The callRange input reflects the percentage of hands your opponents call with, and the bubbleFactor (typically 1.0–1.5) inflates value near the money bubble or final table because opponents tighten their calling ranges. Higher bubble factors favour more aggressive shoving.
How to use
You have 8 BB, 3 players behind, opponent call range 15%, bubble factor 1.3. Step 1: 8 / (8 + 3 × 1.5) = 8 / 12.5 = 0.64. Step 2: 1 − 0.85³ = 1 − 0.614 = 0.386. Step 3: 0.386 × (15/100) = 0.058. Step 4: 0.64 × 0.058 × 1.3 = 0.048, rounded to 0.05. A result above zero signals a profitable shove. Adjust callRange or bubbleFactor to model tighter or looser opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What stack size should I start playing push/fold strategy in tournaments?
Most tournament coaches recommend switching to a pure push/fold strategy at or below 15 big blinds. Below 10 BB, almost every spot that allows you to be first to act should be an all-in. Between 10–15 BB, position matters significantly; button and cutoff shoves are often correct with wide ranges. Above 15 BB, there is enough room to use a min-raise or open-limp strategy that retains post-flop leverage.
How does the bubble factor affect push/fold ranges in poker tournaments?
The bubble factor measures how much more valuable survival is compared to chip accumulation near a payout threshold. A bubble factor of 1.3 means opponents play as if their stack is worth 30% more than its face chip value, causing them to call shoves much tighter. This tighter calling range makes shoving profitable with a wider range of hands for you. Near final tables or pay jumps, bubble factors can exceed 2.0, dramatically widening correct shoving ranges.
Why do more players behind reduce shove profitability even with the same call range?
Each additional player behind you is an independent chance of being called. Even if each individual player calls only 15% of the time, three players collectively call at least once roughly 38% of the time (1 − 0.85³). Being called by multiple players reduces your effective equity dramatically compared to a heads-up pot. The formula's (1 − 0.85^opponents) term captures exactly this exponential increase in call risk.