Poker Push/Fold Calculator
Finds the minimum equity your hand needs when called for an all-in shove to be profitable, given your stack, the players left to act, how often each calls, the dead money and your bubble factor. Ideal for short-stack tournament decisions.
Last updated: September 2026
Formula below · 1 source (Wikipedia) · Updated Sep 2026
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About this calculator
With a short stack, a shove wins the dead money (blinds and antes) when everyone folds and becomes an all-in confrontation when someone calls. Chance of being called: pc = 1 − (1 − callRange)^players, treating each player behind as calling independently with the same range. If nobody calls you win the dead money D. If called, you win S + D (your opponent's matching stack plus the dead money) with your equity e and lose your stack S otherwise. Near the money, chips you lose cost more prize equity than chips you win add; the bubble factor BF (from ICM) scales the loss. Setting the shove's value to zero, (1 − pc) × D + pc × (e × (S + D) − BF × (1 − e) × S) = 0, gives the break-even equity e* = (BF × S − (1 − pc) × D / pc) / (S + D + BF × S). If your hand's equity against the calling range is above e*, the shove is profitable. Variables: stackSize S in big blinds, players behind, callRange (% of hands each calls with), deadMoney D (1.5 BB for blinds only; add antes, e.g. 2.5 BB with a big-blind ante), bubbleFactor BF (1.0 for chip-EV play, higher near pay jumps). A result of 0% means the fold equity alone makes any shove profitable; 100% means no hand is good enough. Simplifications: one caller with an equal or larger stack, no multiway all-ins.
How to use
You have 8 BB, 3 players behind who each call 15% of the time, dead money 1.5 BB, bubble factor 1.3. Step 1: pc = 1 − 0.85³ = 0.386. Step 2: fold-equity term = (1 − 0.386) × 1.5 / 0.386 = 2.39 BB. Step 3: e* = (1.3 × 8 − 2.39) / (8 + 1.5 + 1.3 × 8) = 8.01 / 19.9 = 40.3%. Your hand needs at least 40.3% equity against a top-15% calling range. With a bubble factor of 1.0 the threshold drops to 32.1%. With the default inputs (12 BB, 5 players behind, 15% calls, 1.5 BB dead money, BF 1.0) the break-even equity is 42.4%.
Frequently asked questions
What stack size should I start playing push/fold strategy in tournaments?
Most tournament coaches recommend switching to a pure push/fold strategy at or below 15 big blinds. Below 10 BB, almost every spot that allows you to be first to act should be an all-in. Between 10–15 BB, position matters significantly; button and cutoff shoves are often correct with wide ranges. Above 15 BB, there is enough room to use a min-raise or open-limp strategy that retains post-flop leverage.
How does the bubble factor affect push/fold ranges in poker tournaments?
The bubble factor is the ratio between the prize equity you lose when you lose a set of chips and the equity you gain when you win the same chips. It comes from ICM: near the money bubble or a final-table pay jump, busting costs far more than doubling up gains, so bubble factors of 1.3–2.0 or more are common. In this calculator the bubble factor multiplies the stack you risk when called, which raises the equity your hand needs: at 12 BB with 5 players behind calling 15%, the threshold rises from 42.4% at a bubble factor of 1.0 to 60.8% at 2.0. Your opponents face bubble factors too, which makes them call tighter; enter that effect through a smaller call range.
Why do more players behind reduce shove profitability even with the same call range?
Each additional player behind you is an independent chance of being called. Even if each individual player calls only 15% of the time, three players collectively call at least once roughly 38% of the time (1 − 0.85³). Being called by multiple players reduces your effective equity dramatically compared to a heads-up pot. The formula's 1 − (1 − callRange)^players term captures exactly this increase in call risk.